Conference finals predictions: What’s our ideal MLS Cup? Who will surprise?

We are now down to four teams in the MLS Cup playoffs.

In the Western Conference final, two sides with plenty of MLS history face each other as the LA Galaxy will host the Seattle Sounders with seven MLS Cups combined between the two teams. It has been a bit since the Galaxy were able to claim the honor of being the best in the entire league (2014), while the Sounders’ wait is coming up on five years, with both keen to add another trophy to their cabinets.

However, in the Eastern Conference final, surprise package Orlando City will face the New York Red Bulls, with the Florida club hoping to continue its incredible journey toward its first MLS Cup final appearance. Meanwhile, the Red Bulls are hungry for a first MLS Cup title after falling short back in the 2008 showpiece event.

Who will play in MLS Cup? What’s our ideal matchup? Which team’s fan base most deserves a title? ESPN’s experts weigh in on how the conference finals will play out.

Riqui Puig and Gabriel Pec have been electric, and the team’s postseason goal differential is a whopping 15 goals to three. Yet Seattle is a formidable opponent, given its stingy defense and timely scoring. The two sides went 1-1-1 in their previous meetings (including Leagues Cup), but with the Galaxy playing at home and Seattle a bit dinged up, I think LA just shades it.

Cesar Hernandez: Did you see the Galaxy on Sunday against Minnesota United? The attack was playing as if statue spots were up for grabs alongside the likes of David Beckham and Landon Donovan outside of Dignity Health Sports Park. The six-goal performance and 15 overall goals in three playoff games this season aren’t a flash in the pan, either. The decisiveness seen from the front line, along with the dynamic Puig in support, is par for the course for the team that led MLS in the regular season in xG and shots on target.

Lizzy Becherano: Despite the Sounders’ impressive run throughout the 2024 MLS playoffs, the Galaxy will emerge as the winners of the West. Pec, this season’s Newcomer of the Year, has been a phenomenal addition to the team, connecting perfectly with Puig and Dejan Joveljic to make the Galaxy a true title contender. The No. 2 seed has scored 15 goals in the past three games, and they don’t look to be slowing down.

Ryan Rosenblatt: The Galaxy might have the best five attacking players in this game. They are undefeated at Dignity Health Sports Park this season and have won their three playoff games by a combined score of 15-3. If someone was going to knock them off, you’d bet on a Brian Schmetzer-coached team, but this one still screams LA. All gas, no brakes, and the Galaxy end up playing for their sixth MLS Cup.

Joseph Lowery: With 15 goals in their past three games, the Galaxy might be unstoppable. Up against the Sounders — who happen to have the best defense in MLS based on goals and xG allowed — in the Western Conference final, this weekend won’t be a walk in the park. But with the Galaxy’s blend of possession quality and transition threat, it’s hard to see the Sounders keeping pace.

Megan Swanick: At this stage, anything can happen. The Galaxy’s defense could get exposed. Their defending has vastly improved from last year and goalkeeper John McCarthy has been solid, with the sixth-highest save percentage in MLS, but they still conceded 50 goals in the regular season — more than any top-eight team in the Supporters’ Shield standings. For comparison, Seattle conceded 35 regular-season goals. That’s the fewest in the entire league. Seattle’s strong team defending and goalkeeper Stefan Frei’s big-game reputation could thwart the Galaxy’s wicked attacking lines, but the Galaxy just have so much quality delivering when it counts this postseason that they will prevail in the end.

Atlanta United. The Lions have an impressive balance between defense and attack, but the Red Bulls are carrying momentum as well, and while their high-pressing style might not be easy on the eyes, they’ve managed to get opponents to play games on their terms so far during the postseason. We could be looking at the Red Bulls springing another upset.

Hernandez: Goalkeeper Carlos Coronel has had some brilliant, highlight-worthy moments in the playoffs, Dante Vanzeir has two goals and an assist in his past two appearances, Emil Forsberg has connected well with the attack, Felipe Carballo recently scored a golazo — there’s some momentum there for the Red Bulls. Head coach Oscar Pareja has a few game-changers of his own in Orlando, and home-field advantage, but there’s nothing quite like the boost that the Red Bulls just claimed after a rivalry win.

Becherano: Orlando proved superior after defeating Atlanta United and Charlotte FC in the first rounds of the postseason. The Florida-based team boasts an experienced roster with Nicolás Lodeiro, Facundo Torres and Pedro Gallese, understanding how to keep the rest of the players calm in a must-win situation. Although Orlando may have been a bit inconsistent throughout the regular season, they’ve managed well during the playoffs.

Rosenblatt: The city of Orlando is already flying high with the Pride winning the NWSL Championship, so why not add the Lions’ first MLS Cup berth? They should be tidy enough on the ball that RBNY doesn’t get to feast off of turnovers, letting Torres, Martín Ojeda and Ramiro Enrique deliver Orlando a victory.

Lowery: Orlando City have smothered their opponents in all three home playoff games this year — according to FBref, they allowed an average of only 0.6 xG in those matches against Charlotte and Atlanta. Playing at home again on Saturday against the Red Bulls, Pareja’s team will be their typical pragmatic selves en route to closing down every inch of space behind their backline. Orlando are yet to stumble in their building. They won’t start now.

Swanick: Both regular-season meetings between Orlando and NYRB were close. New York came out on top once (John Tolkin scored in a 1-0 win) and the other game ended in a 1-1 draw. But both meetings were early on, and Orlando took time to ease into the season. That defeat was Orlando’s seventh of 12 losses in the regular season. At the time, they’d lost nearly half their games. Fast forward to the end of the year and Orlando finished the season higher (fourth) than NYRB (seventh) did, but the Red Bulls are playing with an intensity and execution that portends another upset for them.

What is your ideal MLS Cup matchup?

Carlisle: That would be the Galaxy against the Red Bulls, in that you’ve got the team with the most MLS Cup wins against an MLS original that has never won it. The match would also make for a fascinating contrast in styles. You’ve got the Red Bulls that want the match to basically resemble Demolition Derby against one of the league’s most dynamic attacks. It’s harder to create than destroy, but such a matchup would make for compelling viewing.

Hernandez: For those who are still pulled by the 1990s nostalgia of MLS, there would be something very satisfying to see a couple of original members battling it out — especially after 2020 newcomers Inter Miami failed to capitalize on Lionel Messi’s first full season this year. Granted, the new Red Bull ownership rebranded the New York/New Jersey MetroStars, but the connection remains to the early days of MLS.

Becherano: The best MLS Cup final would be the Galaxy and Orlando City, even though both the Lions and the Red Bulls enter as underdogs when you compare them to the Galaxy, raising the stakes for the California-based team. Although many expected Orlando and the Red Bulls to be knocked out of the playoffs at this point, with Inter Miami and an Ohio team making the final, the two have proved themselves worthy of entertaining.

Rosenblatt: It’s been 10 years since two of MLS’s original clubs met for the Cup, so let’s pair up a couple of originals for a Galaxy vs. Red Bulls final. LA’s prodigious attacking talent makes every one of their matches a must-watch contest, but they are open at the back, which New York’s counterattack would be able to feast upon. Give us that back-and-forth thriller for the crown, please.

Lowery: In one corner, we have the free-flowing Galaxy with Puig pulling the strings and quick attackers racing downfield. In the other corner, we have the press-happy, fight-for-every-contested-ball Red Bulls, who haven’t shied away from man-marking in the playoffs. LA is happy to possess. New York is happy to play in transition. Each team, then, would give the other room to play their own game. And for us neutrals? We’d have an open match.

Swanick: I like the sound of a Galaxy vs. Red Bulls battle. Let it be a contest between the original MLS teams. Winner gets to rebrand the opposing team however they choose. Loser has to revert back to the old penalty style next season. Either way, history would be made. LA could claim a record sixth MLS Cup or the Red Bulls would get their first.

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Which fan base deserves this trophy the most?

Carlisle: In other words, which fan base has suffered the most? That would be the Red Bulls in a walk. New York has only reached one MLS Cup final in its nearly 30 years of existence. That was in 2008 when a Columbus Crew side led by Guillermo Barros Schelotto claimed a 3-1 win. Red Bulls fans have also suffered an inordinate amount of playoff heartbreak, with the 2019 collapse to the Philadelphia Union — blowing a 3-1 lead to lose 4-3 — among the more painful incidents. Whenever championship hopes have crumbled, the phrase, “That’s so Metro” — a nod to when the team was known as the MetroStars — gets trotted out. A win would result in epic levels of euphoria for their long-suffering fans.

Hernandez: Orlando have never celebrated an MLS Cup title and the city would then have a men’s and women’s double. The Red Bulls have never won an MLS Cup either and would do so after defeating rivals NYCFC in the conference semis. The Sounders’ turnaround would be incredible after kicking off 2024 with one win in their first nine. And yet, there’s the Galaxy. Seeing their dominance makes it easy to forget that, from the final four, they were the most recent holders of the Wooden Spoon. There was literal roster mismanagement and fines in 2022, and ensuing fan boycotts in 2023. Supporters deserve a trophy after suffering through a brutal period of time.

Becherano: All four fan bases have been great this season, but I’ll say the Galaxy. The supporters suffered in 2023 when finishing the season in 13th place to miss out on the playoffs, but continued showing up in and out of Dignity Health Sports Park. The group is loyal and has not experienced this level of joy in quite some time.

Rosenblatt: There’s not a team in MLS whose fans deserve a cup like the Red Bulls’ faithful. “That’s so Metro” has been a term for heartbreaking incompetency for so long that it dates back to before their name change 18 years ago. These RBNY fans have been beaten down, teased by three Shield-winning sides and laughed at for nearly three decades now. They deserve their moment in the sun.

Lowery: Deserve ain’t got nothing to do with it, but the long-suffering Red Bulls may just be able to taste the MLS Cup at this point. As one of the only three founding teams to have never lifted the trophy, the Red Bulls are close to a new horizon. The Galaxy and Sounders fans have watched their teams win MLS Cups, and Orlando City fans have 19 fewer years of hurt in MLS than their counterparts in New Jersey.

Swanick: You could make a heartfelt argument for each of these fan bases. No matter what, I’ll leave deserving fans out. And although they’ve already won more MLS Cups than anyone else in the league, I think the Galaxy’s fans deserve the phenomenal season they’ve been having, given all the turmoil of the past few years. It’s been a decade since their last title; I wouldn’t begrudge them another win.

Source: https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/42626638/our-ideal-mls-cup

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